美国对华战略：适应or防范？（7）

注释：

[1]王缉思、李侃如：《中美战略互疑：解析与应对》，北京大学国际战略研究中心，2012年。

[2]贝德、坎贝尔和格里格森的履历分别见：http://www.brookings.edu/experts/baderj? view=bio; http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/biog/125594.htm; http://www.cna.org/about/staff/wallace-gregson。

[3]斯坦伯格的履历请见：http://www.maxwell.syr.edu/deans.aspx? id=77309418030。

[4]Hillary Rodham Clinton, "Working toward Change in Perceptions of U.S. Engagement around the World", February 20, 2009, Seoul, http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/02/119430.htm.

[5]"Clinton: Chinese Human Rights Can't Interfere with Other Crises", http://www.cnn.com/2009/PoliTICS/02/21/clinton.china.asia.

[6]John Pomfret, "Obama's Meeting with the Dalai Lama Is Delayed", Washington Post, October 5, 2009.

[7]Hillary Rodham Clinton, Timothy Geithner, "A New Strategic and Economic Dialogue with China", The Wall Street Journal, July 27, 2009.

[8]Hillary Rodham Clinton, "Closing Remarks for U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue", Washington, DC, July 28, 2009, http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/july/126599.htm.

[9]James B. Steinberg, "Administration's Vision of the U.S.-China Relationship", Washington, DC, September 24, 2009, http://www.state.gov/s/d/former/steinberg/remarks/2009/169332.htm.

[10]Kelly Currie, "The Doctrine of 'Strategic Reassurance'", The Wall Street Journal, October 22, 2009; Daniel Blumenthal, "Not so Reassuring...", http://www.defensestudies.org/cds/steinberg-in-china-not-so-reassuring/.相关分析亦见［美］白永辉：《从“利益攸关方”到“战略保证”》，《国际政治研究》，2010年第2期，第108—109页。

[11]Josh Rogin, "The End of the Concept of 'strategic reassurance'?" http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/11/06/the_end_of_the_concept_of_strategic_reassurance.

[12]Department of Defense, Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report, February 2010, pp. 34—35.

[13]Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010, pp. 28—29.

[14]笔者曾在多个国际学术会议上就此问题访谈美国官员和学者。

[15]《中美联合声明》，《人民日报》，2009年11月18目。

[16]吴荻、金灿荣：《金灿荣点评前后“对话”之不同》，《世界知识》，2009年第16期，第22—23页。

[17]"President Barack Obama's Inaugural Address", January 20, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/inaugural-address.

[18]John Milton Cooper, Jr., "Obama's Wilsonian Moment", December 8, 2009, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2009/12/09/obamas-wilsonian-moment.html.

[19]Robert Kagan, "Barack Obama as Woodrow Wilson's Foreign Policy Heir", Washington Post, June 7, 2009.

[20]Hillary Clinton, "Remarks on Internet Freedom", Washington, DC, January 21, 2010, http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/01/135519.htm.

[21]Helene Cooper. "U.S. Approval of Taiwan Arms Sales Angers China", New York Times, January 30, 2010.

[22]"Remarks by President Obama at G-20 Press Conference in Toronto, Canada", June 27, 2010, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-obama-g-20-press-conference-toronto-canada.

[23]David Sanger, Mark Landler, "Major Powers Have Deal on Sanctions for Iran", New York Times, May 19, 2010; David Crawford, Richard Boudreaux, Joe Lauria, and Jay Solomon, "U.S. Softens Sanctions Plan against Iran", The Wall Street Journal, March 25, 2010.

[24]Hillary Clinton, "Remarks at Press Availability", Hanoi, Vietnam, July 23, 2010.

[25]斯坦伯格讲话的题目为“美国对中美伙伴关系的期望”(America's Vision for a China Partnership)。James B. Steinberg, "Remarks at Nixon Center", Washington, DC, July 27, 2010.

[26]斯坦伯格对奥巴马政府对华政策的影响，参见：Josh Rogin, "Steinberg Leaving State, Burns Moves up", March 30, 2011, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/30/steinberg_leaving_state_burns_moves_up。

[27]Josh Rogin, "It's Official: Mitchell Named Burma Envoy, Bader Leaving White House", April 14, 2011, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/14/it_s_official_mitchell_named_burma_envoy.

[28]Mark Landler, "Shake-up Could Affect Tone of U.S. Policy on China", New York Times, April 9, 201l1.

[29]详细内容参见樊吉社：《美国“重返”亚洲与中美关系》，载于黄平、倪峰主编：《美国问题研究报告(2012)：美国全球及亚洲战略调整》，北京：社会科学文献出版社，2012年。本文部分分析参考该文。

[30]Susan B. Glasser, "Head of State", Foreign Policy, July/August 2012, p. 84.

[31]Hillary Rodham Clinton, "Remarks on United States Foreign Policy", Washington, DC, September 8, 2010, http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/09/146917.htm.

[32]Joint Chiefs of Staff, The National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2011: Redefining America's Military Leadership, February 2011, p. 1.

[33]Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Dense, January 2012.

[34]"Up to 2500 Marines Could Be Based in Australia", http://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/2011/11/ap-up-to-2500-marines-could-be-based-in-australia-111611/.

[35]需要指出的是，美国所指的亚太与太平洋司令部覆盖的区域是一样的，而耐人寻味的是，国防部长帕内塔为“战略指南”撰写的前言以及他在国会的作证中，他所提到的美国战略重点是亚太和中东，而不仅仅是亚太地区。见Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership 2011: Priorities for 21st Century Defense, January 2012; Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, "Defense Budget Request-Written Submitted Statement to Senate Armed Services Committee", February 14, 2012。

[36]Hillary Rodham Clinton, "America's Pacific Century", Honolulu, Hawaii, November 10, 2011.

[37]Hillary Rodham Clinton, "Remarks on United States Foreign Policy", Washington, DC, September 8, 2010.

[38]前国家安全委员会亚洲事务资深主任贝德将奥巴马的对华政策概括为三个基础：一是承认并尊重中国的崛起及其合法利益，二是坚持中国的崛起应该合乎国际规范和国际法，三是加强同盟与伙伴关系，确保中国的崛起所产生的影响是稳定的。杰弗里·贝德：《当前中美关系不处于紧张阶段》，《国际战略研究简报》，第66期，2012年4月24日，第2页。

[39]Jackson Diehl, "Obama's Foreign Policy Needs an Update", Washington Post, November 11, 2010; Michael Hirsh, "Obama: The No-Doctrine President", National Journal, March 29, 2011.

[40]Daniel W. Drezner, "Does Obama Have a Grand Strategy?" Foreign Affairs, July/August 2011, Vol. 90, Issue 4.

[41]White House, National Security Strategy, May 2010, p. 1.

[42]Joint Chiefs of Staff, The National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2011: Redefining America's Military Leadership, February 2011, pp. 1—2.

[43]Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Dense, January 2012, p. 1.

[44]Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February 2010, pp. 7, 60.

[45]Stephen M. Walt, "Inflating the China Threat", August 27, 2012, http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/27/inflating_the_china_threat.

[46]Hillary Rodham Clinton, "Remarks on United States Foreign Policy", Washington, DC, September 8, 2010, http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/09/146917.htm.

[47]Hillary Rodham Clinton, "America's Pacific Century", Honolulu, Hawaii, November 10, 2011.

[48]王缉思、李侃如：《中美战略互疑：解析与应对》，北京大学国际战略研究中心，2012年3月。

[49]Robert B. Zoellick, "Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?", New York City, September 21, 2005.

[50]奥巴马和罗姆尼竞选期间有关外交政策的第三场辩论中将中国称为“对手”(Adversary)和“潜在的”合作伙伴，并不讳言美国“pivot to Asia”。参见“transcript of the Third Presidential Debate”, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/22/us/politics/transcript-of-the-third-presidential-debate-in-boca-raton-fla.html? pagewanted=all。

[51]“在十一届全国人大三次会议记者会上温家宝答中外记者问”，2010年3月14日，http://www.mfa.gov.cn/chn/gxh/tyb/zyxw/t663856.htm。

[52]"Remarks by National Security Advisor Tom Donilon", November 15, 2012, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/11/15/remarks-national-security-adviser-tom-donilon-prepared-delivery.

[53]Ibid.

( 樊吉社，中国社会科学院美国研究所研究员、军备控制与防扩散研究中心副主任)